Tuesday, January 6th
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back yesterday most of yesterday’s gains. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 176 points and the Nasdaq up 111 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.17%), but strength late yesterday should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Monday’s early pricing.
3/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.17%
176
Dow
49,153
111
NASDAQ
23,507
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Low
Unknown
There is no relevant economic data coming today, but there are two Fed-member speeches happening. Neither are expected to have an impact on mortgage rates though. We should see a relatively quiet day in the mortgage markets unless some unexpected news hits the wires.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow morning has three pieces of economic data that we will be watching. First will be the ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET that tracks changes in private-sector jobs. While it does draw some attention from the markets, it is not accurate in predicting what the highly important governmental Employment report will show later in the week. Any employment-related data can affect bond trading and mortgage pricing, so we include this one on our calendar of events. Forecasts are calling for 46,000 new payrolls after November’s loss of 32,000 private jobs. A much smaller number would be considered favorable for bonds and mortgage rates since it would signal more weakness in the employment sector.
Low
Unknown
The second and third releases of the day will come at 10:00 AM ET. October's shutdown-delayed Factory Orders data will give us more insight into the manufacturing sector, albeit it is pretty aged now. Its impact on mortgage rates should be minimal because a good portion of the data was previously released in the Durable Goods Orders report two weeks ago and we will get November’s update later this month. Forecasts show a 1.1% decline in new orders for durable and non-durable goods, hinting at a slowing manufacturing sector back in October. A larger decline would be good news for rates even though we likely won't see a strong reaction to the report in mortgage pricing.
Medium
Unknown
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing index (aka service index) for December is tomorrow’s final release. It is similar to yesterday’s ISM manufacturing index but tracks executive opinions on business conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of 52.2, down from November's 52.6. A reading above 50.0 means more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who said it worsened. Good news for mortgage rates would be a much weaker than predicted reading.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.