Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, May 18th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory to recover some of Friday’s sell-off. Stocks are showing early gains, pushing the Dow higher by 145 points and the Nasdaq up 41 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (4.58%). This should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday morning’s pricing due to afternoon weakness as the week came to a close. If you saw an intraday increase in rates late Friday, you should see an improvement this morning of about the same size.

3/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.58%

145

Dow

49,671

41

NASDAQ

26,266

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Neutral

Geopolitical/Financial Issues

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for today or tomorrow. We are seeing a slight rebound in bond prices because of a lack of headlines this morning. Besides some verbal warnings to Iran from President Trump there isn’t much else to drive trading today. This is allowing for a positive open this morning in bonds, albeit they are minor. Let’s see what the rest of the day brings as we are not expecting bonds to hold at current levels very long. Yields should either retreat from their current levels or continue their upward momentum soon.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The rest of the week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports, with none of them considered to be highly influential. There are a couple of afternoon events, including the release of the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting that may also come into play midweek. We are expecting headlines from the Middle East, particularly about the ceasefire with Iran and direction of oil prices, to also contribute to movement in rates this week.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

In addition to this week's data and other scheduled events, we have quite a large number of Fed-member speaking appearances set with multiple speeches being made most days. These speeches often are about mundane topics or just commencement remarks, but sometimes they involve discussions about the economy, inflation and how the Fed reacts to those matters. Any surprise comments, particularly about the Fed's future plans with key interest rates, could cause a strong reaction in the financial and mortgage markets. With so many scheduled this week and no major economic data, don't be surprised to see an intraday reaction in the bond market at least one day.

---

Unknown

none

Overall, no day stands out as most important for rates with so few reports on the calendar. Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes release could draw the strongest reaction of this week’s scheduled events, but only if it gives us some surprises. It will likely be something unscheduled that will cause the biggest change in rates, possibly news about the Strait of Hormuz. Still, despite the relatively light calendar, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if floating an interest rate since they can get extremely active without notice.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.