Wednesday, February 25th
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with little to drive trading other than early stock gains. The major stock indexes are showing early strength, pushing the Dow higher by 110 points and the Nasdaq up 246 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (4.05%), but a bit of strength late yesterday should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Tuesday’s early pricing.
5/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.05%
110
Dow
49,284
246
NASDAQ
23,109
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Low
Neutral
Today’s only relevant event comes during afternoon trading. Last night’s State of the Union speech by President Trump doesn’t seem to be having much of an impact on this morning’s bond trading or mortgage pricing. There were no unexpected new specific policy announcements made last night that are likely to affect rates. This leaves traders awaiting Friday’s big wholesale inflation report before making a noticeable move.
Medium
Unknown
We will get the results of today’s 5-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 PM ET. These shorter-term sales generally do not directly have an impact on mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment slightly. A poor auction means there was a lackluster demand from investors that could lead to broader selling in the bond market. The result may be a minor upward revision to mortgage rates before the end of the day. However, sales with a strong demand for the securities usually bring additional funds into the bond market, leading to a modest improvement in mortgage rates. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 7-year Notes are being sold.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow also has no monthly or quarterly economic data being released, but we will get last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. Analysts are expecting to see 215,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s 206,000. Rising claims are a sign of employment sector weakness that makes bonds more attractive to investors. Therefore, the higher the number of new filings reported tomorrow, the better the news for mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.